The Apocalypse Model Bingo Game

Pull up a chair to Tom and Tomi's kitchen table and play a game that we know all too well.

Housekeeping Note: Surprisingly, nobody's actually asked me this yet (at least to my face):

What is it with your EMS pile-on? Haven't you made your point?

Answer: I am not piling on EMS any more than I will any other taxing district when I get around to them. I’m an Equal Opportunity Skeptic. They just happened to have the unfortunate timing of campaigning for a levy when I decided to start this Substack. So, rather than having to talk about this stuff in obtuse, hypothetical terms, we all have the advantage of being able to observe a real-time example of taxing district behavior unfold before our eyes. Everything I'm talking about has been done by other taxing districts (the subject of this post most especially). I will be moving on after Nov. 5th, I promise. This is building a library that I (and you) can refer to later. That's why it is so detailed.

Coming in the next two weeks:

EMS SERIES

• The $13,300 Battering Ram

• When a ‘No’ Vote Doesn’t Mean “Hell No”

New reader? Find past posts HERE

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Long before this latest EMS levy, The Apocalypse Model was a regular bingo game in the Grote household. The card had squares for each of the phases we would soon see play out in our newspaper (see the illustration at the top of this post). As the press releases, ads and letters rolled in, we filled out the card. If we wrote an editorial against the proposal, we had a separate card for all the names we would be called (“how can you sleep at night,” was my personal favorite). I don't remember a single instance in which we failed to get Bingo! on both.

I only tell this story to show that the EMS levy is just another in the gobs of tax initiatives we covered in our careers that followed this pattern. So I am not singling them out. And, to be clear, I am not poking fun at the EMS levy. I'm mocking their promotion and their process. Even with the fancy $13,300 PR consultant the taxing district hired, it still is following the exact same pattern. There's got to be a dog-eared manual titled Apocalypse Model that sits next to every public official's copy of Robert's Rules of Order.

The Apocalypse Model (which I will hereafter refer to as TAM) starts in a meeting room well before the promotion for the proposal starts. If you are going to talk the electorate into a tax increase, you must first convince yourselves of its righteousness. We called this the Declaration of Determination. Compare these two similarly militant statements:

"We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender." —Winston Churchill, 1941

“We cannot stop until it’s done.” —a local fire chief, quoted in The Star-News Aug. 8. He was noting that some districts in Idaho have only passed a permanent override after five or six failed attempts at the ballot. (Oh, G... Nooooooo)

Having crafted a Declaration of Determination that they are convinced will brand any doubter a fascist, they begin their march on the voters. Except in their zeal, they forget to give equal attention to their argument, which should not be built on emotion but on facts in the record. On our Bingo card, that square is labeled Emotion over Consistency.

Consider these two statements:

“I for one personally cannot go to my constituents and ask for more money.” —A fire chief quoted in The Star-News Oct. 22, 2020

“We cannot stop until it’s done.” —same fire chief in support of tripling the EMS tax on those same constituents less than four years later.

How did we get from fugeddaboudit to let 'er rip in such a short period? We can’t blame COVID. At the time of the first quote, it hadn’t gotten here yet.

For the record, these two quotes were lifted from discussions of two different, but very related topics. The first one was the fire chief's reaction to fire district consolidation (see my previous post). He was vociferously against that idea. The second was lifted from a report on the topic of EMS funding, which, from the sound of the quote, he is fervently for. Are the contexts of these two discussions different enough to unfairly be comparing apples to oranges? You decide. I can take the heat.

When a sales pitch tosses consistency out the window in favor of emotion, details and data go out with it.

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With the proposal on the ballot, it is now time for the Propaganda Phase. A board trustee or a managerial public employee writes a stirring Statement of Impending Doom. Are you ready? Here's the EMS version:

This levy isn’t just a request—it’s a lifeline. Voting “Yes” is a vote for a safer, stronger Valley County. It’s an investment in the future of our community and the well-being of everyone who calls this place home. The cost of doing nothing is far greater than the price of this levy. Our safety is worth every penny.

Since I no longer own The Star-News, I can't reprint the whole thing without being in copyright violation. There's a link to it following this post. I can tell you that there is not one shred of hard evidence presented in it that there is a crisis. We are just to take the writer's opinion and pony up the bucks.

A critical piece of the Propaganda Phase is the Implied Guilt Trip. Check this out from the same piece:

"A 'No' vote, on the other hand, means more of the same—an outdated system struggling to keep up with today’s demands. It means putting your family, your neighbors, and your community at risk. Fewer resources, fewer staff, and more delays in critical moments. Is that a risk you’re willing to take?"

In other words, the strategy is to characterize any doubter as a flint-hearted, reckless moron. That tactic reduces the likelihood anyone will have the courage to raise a hand in public and say, "uh, excuse me, but could I see some NUMBERS?" Not "might," "may," "could." Tom and I always marveled at how effective the Implied Guilt Trip is.

But, as long as we are on the subject of risk, guilt trip strategy is a dicey gamble for the proponents. It absolutely depends on nobody gutting up to question the premise. I honestly don't remember a permanent tax proposal passing when it got a serious challenge. Don't hold me to that because I'm too lazy to dig through the decades to certify that as fact (remember, YGWYPF) But when you think about it, it's logical. Voters resent being treated like children. They won't publicly tell proponents how much they hate being talked down to, but when that voting booth curtain falls behind them or they have their mail-in ballot at the kitchen table, nobody will know how they voted. In the private sanctity of one's own mind, conviction always vanquishes intimidation.

At this point, depending how the squares fall on your card, many of you have already hit Bingo! Please stay with me.

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The proposal has now been unveiled and the proponents have taken their best shot. They quietly sit back and see if anybody is paying attention. We named this the Show Stage after a strategy in football used to see how the opposition lines up before deciding on the next play. It usually takes a couple weeks before anybody screws up the courage to question 'The Establishment,' as we Boomers call authorities. During this time, the proponents are all smiles, inviting the public to coffee and pledging their sincere interest in everybody's point of view. Then, if the electorate is lucky, the first shoe drops.

In the case of the EMS levy, the shoe was a letter to the editor (LTE) from a voter who claimed ignorance and just wanted some answers to questions (which incidentally, had to do with actual NUMBERS). The response came swiftly. "Off the Mark" was the headline on a response written by a fire district employee. In a Facebook post, a fire chief rebuked a different writer for "alluding" that property taxes would triple. The wording in the letter to the editor was clumsy, but I daresay anybody reading it knew the reference was to the EMS district portion and not the entire tax liability. I am all for accuracy. But there's accuracy and there is nitpicking.

The 'Come Let Us Reason Together' Phase

At this juncture, having called one letter writer off the mark and another one 'allusional', the second propaganda phase begins. Voters are exposed to a parade of newspaper ads, paid for with their tax dollars—it's worth noting that 36% of this expense came out of the pockets of those who had already voted 'no' on this same proposal twice. The ad campaign uses the power of repetition to lend mechanical advantage to the Apocalypse contentions. All of the ads reiterate the doomsday theme. All of them repeat their cheery 'open door' policy. There always is an implication that if voters have doubts, all they have to do is come to a public meeting or visit—a firehouse in this case—and they will experience a spiritual transformation. You go in "uninformed" and you come out "informed."

I assume an informed voter is a 'yes' voter according to their metrics. They say that they 'respect opposing viewpoints', but they just can't escape their clear bias that 'no' voters are uninformed. It doesn't matter if that's not what they mean. It's how the voter takes their meaning that counts. I don't think the advocates have any idea how they really sound. In a Facebook post one of the fire chiefs went off on people who shoot their mouths off against the proposal without foundation. He called them "uninformed." That’s another hypocrisy of TAM. We never see advocates dish out the same opprobrium to their own supporters who stretch the truth.

If the opposition persists, proponents become alarmed that their proposal might not be clear sailing after all. That's when we start seeing the Freudian Slip. It's one of the few concepts Sigmund came up with that survived being defamed by trash talking feminists. If advocates get pestered by skeptics, sooner or later, they have to counter them. Some quite revealing thoughts escape from the promoters' unconscious minds when that happens. Try this from a fire chief:

“We often hear that people don’t want us to create “fearmongering,” which is the last thing I want to do. But, when that is the reality of not getting funded, it is arguably the responsible thing to do.”

He said later that he 'framed that wrong' and didn't really mean it. I have learned that people always mean what they say. What they didn't mean was to say it. I bet Sigmund would agree.

The final element of TAM is known alternately as the Gracious Winner (if it passes) or the Rationalization Spin (if it loses). If this levy fails and the TAM pattern is followed, we will get a complete denial that the proposal was flawed in any way. We'll hear things like 'well, we know times are tough and we appreciate everybody participating.' That's an actual paraphrase of the EMS proponents' reaction when the levy failed the second time. But these words are merely a way for the disappointed to sooth themselves for having asked the wrong question. Others will be downright pugnacious and say something like, 'the voters have spoken. But I will continue to fight for the higher ideal', implying that the prevailing 'no' voters have no ideals. If the EMS vote doesn't go the advocates' way, maybe reading this post will convince them to choose an alternate ending to this parable. I fervently hope so.

The classic movie stereotype of the journalist is a cynical salt with a cigar in one hand and a bourbon bottle in the bottom desk drawer. There is a certain world-weariness that goes with watching the same thing happen over and over again. I admit: I am taking a whole career's worth of frustration with the Apocalypse Model out on the EMS levy. In fairness, this is not something new. This is a pattern that has been followed by every tax initiative I've watched for 40 years.

To all the people who have come forward and may yet come forward to express their doubts on this or any proposal: sometimes you have to risk an accusation of being destructive to be constructive. And sometimes you have to take on the painful task of wounding people you respect. The EMS proponents behind this version of the Apocalypse Model are decent, thoughtful and intelligent. They work tirelessly in a noble profession. But so did I. So do we all. True, I haven't seen the things a paramedic has seen. But they haven't been called the names I have been called, sometimes in front of my children. I stand toe-to-toe with them on the overtime hours too.

I want to convince all my readers, regardless of what side of the EMS proposal you are on, that the Apocalypse Model needs to go. If you have to use it, you aren’t sure of your case. Agreed?

Bingo!

Afterthoughts, Observations and Authentications:

• A link to the full Declaration of Determination is HERE (though, if I'm not mistaken, you need to be a Star-News subscriber to see it)

Reader Glossary

YGWUPF (ya-guh-upf) You Get What You Pay For. Def. — used to qualify a statement I'm pretty sure is fact, but would take countless hours of research to verify as indisputably certain. Since this blog is free, ain’t gonna do it. YGWUPF.

About me: Tom and Tomi Grote owned/published The Star-News for 40 years (1983-2022). We sold the paper and are now retired on an acreage near Lake Fork with two horses and a Basset Hound named Gidget.

Be sure to drop by the digital archives

In the last years of our careers, Tom talked the Laura Moore Cunningham Foundation into financing digital archives of The Star-News and its predecessors, The Cascade News and the Payette Lakes Star. Up until the creation of this free public service, people who wanted to find something in the archives had to paw through volumes of the original print editions housed at the public libraries. Thanks to the LMCF generous assistance, the ridiculously expensive conversion of these archives into a searchable, digital database was accomplished. You can find the archive here. It is worth bookmarking in your browser for future reference.

The mini-civics lessons in this column will eventually be housed with the archives for a complete community reference resource.

Fire chiefs say ‘no way’ to consolidation

Combined district called too costly for taxpayers

10/22/2020

BY MAX SILVERSON, The Star-News

Valley County’s three fire chiefs on Monday told Valley County commissioners that consolidating the county’s fire districts would be “an exercise in futility.”

A study conducted by the consulting firm Emergency Services Consulting International presented to commissioners on Oct. 6 recommended either partial or complete consolidation of the McCall Fire Protection District, Donnelly Rural Fire Protection District and Cascade Rural Fire Protection District.

Donnelly Fire Chief Juan Bonilla told commissioners that the study’s model for consolidation would require raising the levy rate of the Donnelly and Cascade districts beyond a reasonable level.

“I for one personally cannot go to my constituents and ask for more money,” Bonilla said.

To do so would also require voters in all three districts to approve a permanent levy override.

The study’s sample budget for a consolidated district would take a levy rate about 18% higher than McCall’s current rate and apply it to all districts.

The difference would amount to a 25% increase for Donnelly residents and close to a 69% increase in Cascade.

“Because there’s such a huge gap and just that one portion (levy rates), it’s almost an exercise of futility,” Bonilla said.

Even using those figures, the sample budget shows a deficit of about $619,000 in five years, McCall Fire Chief Garrett de Jong said.

The study over-projected charges for service by $1.2 million to $1.5 million over that time, so the levy rate would need to be even higher, de Jong said.

“The draft budget that the study uses is not realistic and the solution of legal consolidation is much more complicated than the study lets on,” de Jong told commissioners.

Short of full consolidation, the study also recommended that the three districts collaborate more closely through agreements that would standardize training, continuing medical education and fire prevention activities as well as purchasing and maintenance practices.

“When we look at all their recommendations . . . we’re doing 90% to 95% of those already,” Bonilla said.

The three districts collaborate through an administrative council consisting of a county commissioner, each district’s medical director and another appointed representative from each fire district to help standardize operational plans and other practices, Bonilla said.

Commissioners and fire chiefs all expressed disappointment at the study and its core recommendation of consolidation, saying they had hoped for more usable suggestions.

“I thought we were going to get a whole different report,”commission Chair Elt Hasbrouck said.

Hasbrouck said he had hoped the study would forecast what might happen in the next 10 to 30 years and suggest how many EMTs, ambulances and facilities would be needed over that time.

“We didn’t get any of that other than just ‘consolidate it,’” Hasbrouck said. “That was very frustrating to me.”

Fire chiefs said that some of the data like projected population growth would be useful and there were opportunities to use the study to improve their districts.

Instead of pursuing consolidation, fire chiefs plan to consult with the administrative council to form recommendations from the study.